Speculation around the twelfth Belgian Presidency of the EU provides an opportunity for reflection on how to value the political weight of a European presidency.

The country takes stewardship of the European Union at a time of uncertainty over the course it will set for its own state. On 1 July Belgium is scheduled to take over the rotating six-month Presidency of the EU. However, just over a fortnight before, the country will have gone to the polls in what will be its second general election in three years.

The unusually protracted nature of the post- 2007 Belgian election negotiations suggest that the formation of a government may be difficult, but even if a coalition government were to be in place in time for 1 July, many questions remain as to how cohesive it would be. Questions remain regarding whether it will be able to find a common, strong and united voice to push an ambitious agenda and deliver a strong EU Presidency.

At least three criteria can serve to establish the credibility and expected performance of a Member State preparing to steer the bloc’s immediate future. These are: the Member State’s commitment to the European project; the level of ambition of that nation’s policy objectives and the political strength to drive these forward and, the consistency of its programme.

Belgium’s somewhat unstable political past has put the country’s political strength under the spotlight, and its imminent assumption of the Presidency raises interesting questions on how much the political strength of a Member State plays in delivering a successful Presidency.

One of the main challenges for the new administration will be the management of internal issues to ensure that they do not affect wider EU policy initiatives. The particularities of the division of power in Belgium, between the federal, regional and community levels, coupled with the divided political landscape, will represent a challenge that the new Government will need to rise to, not just for Belgium, but also for the EU.

The general perception – or hope – is, however, that part of the uncertainty that the delicate internal situation in Belgium brings to the EU could be counterbalanced by the highly respectable figure of the Belgian President of the Council, and former Belgian Prime Minister, Herman Van Rompuy. Not only does his role as a permanent president add a further layer of stability to the Council Presidency, his reputation as a politician and mediator, particularly knowledgeable of the Belgian situation, inspires confidence.

Acknowledging the testing situation, an inter-governmental consultation structure has been created by the Government to ensure that common positions can be reached during the Belgian Presidency. When different stakeholders fail to agree on a common position, it is likely that Belgium will abstain from voting at EU level on the matter in question.

When it comes to setting the Presidency’s agenda, Belgium will work within the overarching set of priorities shared with Spain and Hungary. The Belgians were active in setting these under the common programme of the tripartite presidency. Stemming from these, Belgium’s six major themes will be: implementing the Lisbon Treaty; launching the EU 2020 economic strategy; pursuing international climate and energy negotiations; implementing the Stockholm programme in the area of justice, asylum and immigration; continuing enlargement negotiations; and preparing the 2011 budget and the mid-term review of the financial perspectives.

The specific policy priorities that the Belgian Presidency will pursue will soon become clear. Over the past few weeks, the Belgian Permanent Representation to the EU has assumed the task of communication, a move that has provided the forthcoming Presidency with a voice and sense of purpose.

It is expected that as this is the European Year for Combating Poverty and Social Exclusion, Belgium will focus its efforts on revamping the EU’s social agenda. Belgium is likely to bring to the Union its experience in forging a unique social model, paving the way for a European blueprint for economic and social recovery, addressing the needs of the most vulnerable.

Belgium stands in a unique position with regards to the commitment to the European project. A founding country of the integration process, the country’s pivotal role in drawing the European roadmap cannot be denied. However, its own internal disputes continue to fascinate European political observers who wonder how a cornerstone country of the EU project can reconcile its own political challenges with driving further integration of the EU. Perhaps we can say that with such experience, Belgium is the perfect country to lead an EU that measures the strength of its union by its diversity.